Informal diplomacy could play a role in ending the war in Ukraine

In the book “The Last Politician,” President Biden is quoted explaining diplomacy as a version of family dynamics — “emotional intelligence applied to people with names that were sometimes difficult to pronounce.”

If Biden is correct, that means trying to negotiate an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is going to be like dealing with the most obnoxious, hard-headed, self-righteous family member. What I explain to my students in diplomacy and international relations courses is that we need more non-military engagement with Russia.

There are reports that a small, unofficial group of former diplomats and national security officials met recently with Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Such interactions need to grow to include influential people acting in a non-official capacity, possibly leaders of non-governmental organizations, religious leaders and business executives.

We have documented cases of where this has been attempted in other conflicts. Nahum Goldmann was president of the World Jewish Congress when he tried to advance ideas with Arab officials for a peace settlement, which included the Palestinians recognizing Israel.

In 1970, he also sought a meeting with the Egyptian president to discuss a resolution to conflicts with Israel. While the Israeli government stopped this from occurring, the two countries did eventually find a way to peace with the signing of the historic 1979 agreement, which has held for over 44 years.

Even President Ronald Reagan, at the insistence of his daughter, met during the height of the Cold War with anti-nuclear activist Dr. Helen Caldicott. Reagan wrote in his diary “I’m afraid our daughter has been taken over by that whole d–n [anti-nuclear] gang.” Yet historians credit such private citizens for the arms treaties that followed between the U.S. and then-Soviet Union.

Such second-track diplomatic activities have also been used successfully between Israelis and Palestinians, leading up to the Oslo Accords, and between U.S. and Iranian officials and academics which helped lay the groundwork for the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, signed a decade ago.

Indeed in early 2022, before the Ukraine invasion, Biden said he would give diplomatic talks “every chance to succeed.” Military planners have tried to gain territory in hopes that their efforts would result in forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. This peacemaking must now intensify, and different approaches should be encouraged.

In such private citizen-led forums, strategies for de-escalation can be discussed and vetted. Ideas that appear feasible can then be fed to formal diplomatic representatives.

There are natural candidates for such a role. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel is acknowledged as a premier Putin negotiating partner. She has both the experience in dealing with him and the freedom of not being directly tied to a sitting government.

There are others who could serve in this position. Multinational corporations and their shared financial goals create ties that can bind people across borders.

The late American businessman Armand Hammer developed numerous Russian links through his enormous business interests. Although his legacy is controversial, his work to create a settlement to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s was admirable. Hammer said at the time, “I’m acting in a purely private capacity as a private individual,” and the New York Times reported that he was “keeping State Department officials informed of his contacts.”

In the context of today, Ukraine is proud of its aerospace industry, which includes the design, production and operation of civil, military and cargo aircraft and space technology. The very nature of the aviation industry requires multilateral relationships and negotiating skills. Could these behind-the-scenes business contacts help bring this situation in for a landing? The idea should be explored.

The issues are complex. They will include dealing with Russian war crimes committed during the war and navigating Ukrainian national pride.

Biden’s dysfunctional family view of foreign policy means that sometimes one needs a trusted aunt or uncle to step into the fray as the cousins fight. That moment has arrived for the third parties to help us find a new peace for Europe. 

Bruce Dayton is department chair and associate professor at the School for International Training in Brattleboro, Vermont.