U.S. oil production seen flat until next year, easing glut concerns (NYSEARCA:USO)

Crude oil futures closed higher Tuesday to start the week with back-to-back gains after plunging last week to three-week lows.

Prices initially climbed more than $1/bbl but pulled back after Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on his efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the Gaza War that a Hamas reply to a proposal was being reviewed.

At the same time, the U.S. continued its campaign against Iran-backed Houthis, whose attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted global oil trading routes.

“Geopolitical tensions are likely to keep crude bulls in the game above $70,” but gains may be “capped down the road due to rapidly falling expectations around aggressive Fed rate cuts and growing concerns over China’s economy,” FXTM’s Lukman Otunuga told MarketWatch.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for March delivery finished +0.7% to $73.31/bbl, and front-month April Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed +0.8% to $78.59/bbl.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for domestic oil production growth, seeing U.S. output growing by 170K bbl/day this year, down from its previous outlook for a 290K bbl/day rise and well below last year’s increase of 1.02M bbl/day.

The EIA said it now sees U.S. crude production coming in flat for most of this year at 13.21M bbl/day and not reaching a new record until early 2025, potentially easing concerns about a supply glut that has weighed on prices.

Shut-ins from cold weather caused output to drop to 12.6M bbl/day in January from a record 13.3M bbl/day in December, the EIA reported.