SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Clark Schultz,
shih-wei
Welcome to Seeking Alpha’s Catalyst Watch – a breakdown of some of next week’s actionable events that stand out. Check out Saturday morning’s regular Stocks to Watch article for a full list of events planned for the week, or the Seeking Alpha earnings calendar for companies due to report.
Monday – December 18
- Volatility watch – Options trading volume is high again on Spirit Airlines (SAVE) as traders wait on the result of the Department of Justice trial on blocking the merger with JetBlue Airways (JBLU). Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) and Big Lots (BIG) both have an elevated level of short positions on them. The most overbought stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index are Snap (SNAP), Impact Fusion International (OTCPK:IFUS), and MBIA (MBI). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index are ReAlpha Tech (AIRE), Ventyx Bio (VTYX), and Talon Metals (OTCPK:TLOFF). Gold stocks Newmont (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Coeur Mining (CDE), New Gold (NGD), Gold Fields Limited (GFI), Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW), and i-80 Gold Corp. (IAUX) are some of the sector names on watch for more volatility.
- Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include HEICO (HEI).
- All day – The Bank of America Hydrogen Conference will include presentations by Plug Power (PLUG) and CF Industries (CF).
Tuesday – December 19
- Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include FedEx (FDX), Accenture (ACN), FactSet (FDS), and FuelCell Energy (FCEL).
- M&A votes – Livent (LTHM) shareholders will vote on the merger of equals with Allkem Limited (OTCPK:OROCF). Orchard Therapeutics (ORTX) shareholders will vote on the takeover offer from Kyowa Kirin (OTCPK:KNBWY) (OTCPK:KYKOY).
- All day – The Bank of Japan meeting next week has the potential for some dramatic hints on the end of the negative interest rates era for the nation.
- All day – WTI crude December futures will expire. Crude oil futures (CL1:COM) have seen extra volatility over the last year on contract expiration dates.
- All day – AutoZone (AZO), United Natural Foods (UNFI), and Guidewire Software (GWRE) will hold their annual meetings.
- 8:30 a.m. The housing sector will get a double dose of data with the release of the building permits and housing starts reports.
- 12:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will speak on the U.S. economy and general business outlook.
- 5:30 p.m. FedEx (FDX) will hold its FQ4 earnings conference call. The stocks with the highest trading correlation with FedEx (FDX) on its earnings day are United Parcel Service (UPS), Expeditors International (EXPD), and Landstar System (LSTR).
Wednesday – December 20
- Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include General Mills (GIS), Micron Technology (MU), Toro (TTC), and Winnebago (WGO). Options trading on Blackberry (BB) implies a 9% swing in share price after the company reports.
- 10:00 a.m. The November existing home sales report will be released. Economists forecast 3.77M existing home sales in the month vs. 3.79M in October. Although mortgage rates are dropping, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was still above 7% in November.
- 5:00 p.m. Micron Technology (MU) will hold its FQ1 earnings call. Options trading implies a 6% swing in share price after the semiconductor company reports. Qualcomm (QCOM) and FormFactor (FORM) are the two stocks with the tightest trading correlation to Micron on earnings days.
Thursday – December 21
- Earnings watch – Notable companies due to report include CarMax (KMX), Paychex (PAYX), Carnival (CCL), and Nike (NKE). Options trading on Mission Produce (AVO) implies a 13% swing in share price after the company reports.
- 8:30 a.m. The Philadelphia Fed Index report will be released. Economists expect the index to stay in contractionary territory as business investment slows from the prior unsustainable level of growth.
- 4:30 p.m. ARK Invest will hold its December Fund mARKet Update webinar.
Friday – December 22
- All day – The FDA action arrives for Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ (IONS) Eplontersen for hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloid polyneuropathy. The drug candidate met all primary and secondary endpoints in a phase 3 trial at 66 weeks. Ionis is teaming up with AstraZeneca (AZN) to develop and commercialize eplontersen
- All day – It is the preliminary proxy deadline for the proposed merger between Alaska Airlines (ALK) and Hawaiian Holdings (HA).
- 8:30 a.m. The PCE core prices report will be released. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge is forecast to show a soft 0.2% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year rise for November.
- 8:30 a.m. The November Durable Goods Orders report is forecast to show a small month-over-month increase, with Boeing (BA) expected to be less of a drag on the overall number than in October.
- 8:30 a.m. One of the final readings of the year on consumer sentiment will arrive just as the holiday shopping season wraps up. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is expected to be consistent with the preliminary reading, which showed a surge in sentiment to 69.4 from 61.3 previously amid confidence that interest rates will fall in 2024.
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