EIA cuts April coal export forecast by a third following Baltimore bridge collapse

Closure of the Port of Baltimore, the second biggest U.S. hub for coal shipments, prompted the Energy Information Administration on Tuesday to cut its forecast for April coal exports by 33% and May coal exports by 20%.

The EIA previously predicted coal shipments would rise by ~1% this year to 100.8M tons, but it now expects exports to decline by 6% to 94.5M tons following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and resulting port closure.

“We expect U.S. coal exports to recover toward the end of the summer or early fall, but there is significant uncertainty based on the timeline for the port reopening,” the EIA said.

Coal exports have been rising in recent years as domestic utilities shift to cleaner fuels, making international markets critical for U.S. companies; the Port of Baltimore accounted for ~28% of U.S. exports last year.

Potentially relevant stocks include Consol Energy (NYSE:CEIX), Ramaco Resources (METC), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), Warrior Met Coal (HCC), Arch Coal (ARCH), and Peabody Energy (BTU).