The last GOP debate of 2023

The fourth GOP debate takes place at 8 p.m. ET., just over a month before the first nominating contest of 2024. 

On stage: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Absent again: former President Trump.

It’s the last scheduled debate before Iowa’s Jan. 15 caucuses, though another may be coming next month before the caucuses. 

Helpful resources:

DeSantis and Haley are vying for second in Iowa. 538’s Iowa polling averages put each just below 20 percent — and still more than 25 percentage points behind Trump.

Revisit what some experts told us about the significance of a strong second-place finish in Iowa here. 

And on Jan. 23, just eight days after the Iowa caucuses are the New Hampshire primaries. Christie is averaging 12 percent in Granite State polls, putting him in third behind Trump and Haley. 

Ramaswamy’s polling averages are in the single digits nationally and in the first two states to vote. 

The pressure’s on for each campaign to pick up steam.

The fourth GOP debate will air on NewsNation, a cable channel owned by The Hill’s parent company, Nexstar Media Group. NewsNation anchor Elizabeth Vargas, NBC host Megyn Kelly and The Washington Free Beacon Editor-in-Chief Eliana Johnson will moderate the event.

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres invoked Article 99 for the first time to bring the situation in Gaza to the UN Security Council’s attention, saying he expects “public order to completely break down due to desperate conditions, rendering even limited humanitarian assistance impossible.”

• The Justice Department is bringing its first-ever war crimes charges against four Russian military personnel for alleged atrocities committed against an American citizen in Ukraine.

• President Biden signed an executive order during the 2023 White House Tribal Nations Summit aimed at making it easier for tribal communities to access federal funding. 

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who in October became the first House Speaker ever recalled from the role, announced he’s resigning from the chamber at the end of the year.

From his Wall Street Journal op-ed: “I will continue to recruit our country’s best and brightest to run for elected office. The Republican Party is expanding every day, and I am committed to lending my experience to support the next generation of leaders.”

The announcement comes one day after Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), a McCarthy ally who served as Speaker pro tempore after McCarthy’s ouster, announced he won’t seek reelection next year.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) has indicated she’ll decide on a third-party presidential bid within the next couple months. Others, like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), have also flirted with the idea of a non-major-party White House bid.

We asked election analysts and political scientists: Should either major party be worried about a third-party ticket in 2024?

📣 “Trump’s vote is rock-solid, his people would walk on hot coals for him. Biden’s voters have far more tepid feelings[.] … Then there is a block of voters who would never vote for Trump, but do not really want to vote for Biden. If that group is offered an off-ramp, there is a good chance that they will take it. It is difficult to come up with a third-party or independent candidate scenario that does not result in a net benefit for Trump. On the other hand, if they don’t have an alternative, they may well just stay home.” — Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Political Report

📣 “Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, if each is nominated, are likely to go into the general election campaign with higher unfavorability than favorability. This means that a significant slice of the electorate will have negative views of both candidates, and these kinds of voters likely will decide the election. They also are probably the voters who would be more open to voting third party. So the roster of third party candidates and who they disproportionately hurt could matter a great deal.“ — Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball

📣 “While third-party and independent presidential candidates are unlikely to gain more than a very small percent of the vote or win outright, they nonetheless pose a significant threat to the major parties because … ever since the 2000 election there has been only a few points difference between the votes for major party candidates. Aside from obvious cases like the Greens siphoning votes away from the Democrats, it is not yet clear which major party stands to lose more votes owing to which particular third-party/independent candidate. There exists, however, widespread concern from former allies of the No Labels group that they are strategizing to harm the Democrats much more than the Republicans, despite their purported claims of wanting to equally oppose both Trump and Biden.“ — Bernard Tamas, associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University and author of “The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties”

📣 “The major parties should be somewhat concerned, although they might downplay it. On the one hand, voters are less inclined to vote for third party candidates nowadays because of the possibility of contributing to a ‘spoiler outcome,’ which is especially unappealing to voters nowadays, given voters generally have strong negative feelings towards ‘the other party’ in this polarized era. On the other hand (and why they should worry), even a small number of votes can tip the balance in some swing states and therefore the outcome of the election.“ — Dan Lee, associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, whose research areas include the impact of third parties

Momentum is building for public and private insurance to cover over-the-counter contraception. Check out the roadmap to affordable contraception at: thepillotc.org/affordability

The supplemental package with funding for Ukraine, Israel, the border and more failed to get the 60 Senate votes required for work to begin on the legislation. The final vote was 50-50. Republican leaders had urged members to block the legislation over an immigration policy impasse.

As The Hill’s Rafael Bernal noted, the supplemental package under consideration in the Senate “boosts funding for border enforcement, but does not include changes to asylum law or the administration’s immigration parole powers.”

Earlier Wednesday, conservative groups called on congressional leaders to settle for nothing less than the immigration proposals in the House GOP’s H.R. 2.

MORE: Biden willing to make ‘significant compromises’ on border policy amid fight for Ukraine funding

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) threatened to hold Hunter Biden in contempt if he doesn’t appear for a closed-door deposition next week.

The threat comes after Republicans shot down a call for a public hearing from Abbe Lowell, legal counsel for the president’s son. The deposition is part of the House GOP’s impeachment inquiry into President Biden.

The Hill released its list of top lobbyists who “stand out for the results they’ve delivered for their clients, companies, trade associations and advocacy groups in the nation’s capital” this year. See the list here.

Former President Trump told Fox News’s Sean Hannity during a town hall Tuesday night, “I love this guy, he says, ‘you’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said no, no, no, other than day one. We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.”

40 days until the Iowa Republican caucuses.

48 days until New Hampshire‘s Democratic and Republican primaries.

Thursday: Hanukkah begins at sundown. It’s also Pearl Harbor Day. 

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: ALaTour@thehill.com