Rishi Sunak struggles to maintain grip on power as 65th Tory MP calls it quits

If Westminster is becoming a “zombie parliament” then James Heappey, once seen as a rising star of the Conservative party, on Friday joined the ranks of the living dead: Tory MPs stepping down at the next election.

Heappey, a former Army officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, became the 65th Conservative MP to call it quits; almost one in five of Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary party has already in effect checked out.

For a prime minister struggling to maintain his grip on power, the sight of high-profile MPs heading for the exit is symptomatic of a party in serious trouble, with morale hitting a new low this week.

The Financial Times reported this week on a sense of drift at Westminster. The working day in the House of Commons chamber has been shorter on average this parliamentary session than in any other in the past quarter century. Labour called it a “zombie parliament”.

One rightwing Tory rebel talked of a “vibe shift” this week, with Tory MPs sinking into gloom as Sunak struggled to contain political fires raging on several fronts.

The febrile mood has reignited speculation that Sunak could face a leadership challenge if, as expected, the Conservatives are battered in local elections on May 2.

Some rightwing Tory MPs have discussed backing Penny Mordaunt, the centre-right leader of the House of Commons, if Sunak faces a challenge. It would take 53 Conservative MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

The Daily Mail reported on Saturday on a “Plot to crown Mordaunt as PM”, where she could emerge as a unifying figure. Mordaunt’s allies deny any plot and say the story was planted to “damage her and the government”.

Mordaunt, who stood against Sunak for the Tory leadership in 2022, won global attention last year when she carried a ceremonial sword at King Charles’s coronation.

One rightwing rebel insider said there had been talks with Mordaunt’s allies, adding that she “would give the party a 5- to 10-point boost”. Mordaunt’s social views are seen as too “woke” by some on the Tory right, but she has broad cross-party appeal.

Tory MPs think the plotting is at an embryonic stage but the fact that a challenge to Sunak is even being discussed — he has been prime minister for less than 18 months — is ominous for Number 10.

Sunak announced this week he would not be holding an election on May 2 to coincide with local elections — hardly surprising when the Tories trail Labour by 20 points. “We’d have been crazy to have a May election,” said one cabinet minister.

But Sunak’s decision is a gamble on things getting better. What if he is wrong? “The mood is bad — people are thinking ‘Oh God, it’s only going to get worse’,” said one former minister.

“What if the theory that there’s a floor on how low Tory votes can go is wrong?” With the Conservatives polling at about 20 points in some surveys, Sunak appears to be testing that theory to its limits.

The spring Budget, once seen as a decisive pre-election moment, came and went with no discernible rise in Tory support, and the looming local elections look ominous for the Conservatives.

When these contests were last fought in 2021 the party was led by Boris Johnson, a prime minister who was enjoying a Covid-19 “vaccine bounce”. The party could have some way to fall on May 2.

If the local elections go badly, some Tory MPs believe that rightwing rebels — some not reconciled to Johnson’s defenestration in 2022 — will turn on Sunak or try to topple him. “It will be judgment week,” said one former minister.

The prime minister’s team marvel at how any of his MPs believe that replacing Sunak with a fourth Tory leader in a single parliament — just months out from a general election — could help the situation.

But they admit things are bad. “It’s been a fucking difficult week,” admitted one ally of Sunak, reflecting on Number 10’s maladroit handling of a dispute over a leading Tory donor, Frank Hester.

The healthcare technology entrepreneur reportedly said during a meeting in 2019 that looking at Diane Abbott, Britain’s first female black MP, made “you just want to hate all black women”.

Sunak’s initial refusal to label Hester’s comments racist — let alone return his money — alarmed some MPs, while the defection of Lee Anderson, a former deputy Tory chair, to the populist Reform UK party had already put nerves on edge.

One MP close to Number 10 said the mood had darkened among Sunak’s special advisers, or spads: “A lot of the senior spads hero worship him on an individual level and have typically been more positive. But there’s a real downturn in morale of late. The energy and conviction have gone.”

Sunak’s perceived weakness has emboldened potential leadership contenders, adding to the sense among some Tory MPs that the prime minister could face a challenge after the May elections.

Kemi Badenoch, business secretary, in effect forced Sunak to denounce Hester after declaring on the social media site X that the donor’s reported comments were racist. Sunak followed suit four hours later.

Government insiders said Badenoch was also instrumental in blocking a bid by an Abu Dhabi-backed group for the Telegraph and Spectator; Sunak intervened to stop foreign states owning UK newspapers on Wednesday.

Grant Shapps, defence secretary, has been on his own manoeuvres, publicly lobbying for UK military spending to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product. His call for Britain to move from a “postwar to prewar” stance will resonate with grassroots Tory activists.

There is a sense at Westminster of people waiting for something to happen, with little parliamentary activity to distract MPs facing a rendezvous with voters before the end of the year.

Some Conservative MPs believe that Sunak is holding back legislation to ban smoking among the next generation for fear of upsetting his party’s rightwingers. Number 10 insists a bill will be brought forward next week.

Sunak’s team know he needs to regain some momentum and are hoping an economic recovery will help to calm party nerves. “We’re expecting good news on inflation next week,” said one ally. “The economy is growing.”

The prime minister also hopes to begin deportation flights of asylum seekers to Rwanda next month, but among Tory MPs there is scepticism that Number 10 can turn things around.

“We’re hearing now that there’s going to be a ‘policy blitz’,” said one Tory MP from the mainstream One Nation group. “Well, why couldn’t we have had that much earlier? It’s becoming hard to believe there’s any strategy at all.”