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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — While everyone else was trying to rescue the world from climate catastrophe, Vladimir Putin was negotiating Russia’s oil exports down the road.
As the COP28 climate talks in Dubai reached their scheduled halfway point on Wednesday, the Russian leader landed discreetly just 150 kilometers away. His destination, however, was not the international forum where officials were debating the future of fossil fuels.
It was Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates’ capital, where Putin began a quick tour of two critical business partners. First up, Putin’s Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Then, it was over to Riyad to see Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
If not intentional, Putin’s timing certainly seemed designed to thumb his nose at the global talks happening less than a 90-minute drive away. His presence presented a symbolic split screen: Negotiators haggling over how to wean the world off fossil fuels in one frame, and Putin with every reason to keep them flowing in the other.
Russia’s oil, of course, has been keeping Moscow afloat since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, providing consistent revenue the Kremlin can draw from to cover its growing military costs. But oil prices have slipped recently, leaving Russia in a standoff over how to manage output with countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Over at COP28, Putin’s rare global galavant brought out the protesters.
“Don’t you dare come to COP,” warned one of several signs held by climate activists from the Fridays For Future movement. “Fossil dictators out,” declared another.
And, more bluntly: “Fuck Putin.”
Inside the venue, though, Putin’s proximity barely registered.
“Other than your mentioning it here, I’d sort of forgotten that he might be coming to the region,” United States climate envoy John Kerry said, answering a question from POLITICO at a press briefing. “But it doesn’t affect us here.”
European Union climate chief Wopke Hoekstra told POLITICO it was “up to those who receive him to explain why they think that is a good idea.”
Putin, Hoekstra added, “has been condemned by a vast majority of the U.N. and he’s wanted in the Hague for war crimes. So from the European perspective, there can be no business as usual.”
Russian oil conundrum
Putin’s visit comes at a tense time for Russia’s relations with fossil fuel-rich Gulf states.
After hitting record highs of more than $120 per barrel in the wake of Moscow’s invasion, oil prices have been on the slide. In a bid to keep prices high, members of the OPEC+ oil producers cartel have agreed to slash production, squeezing supplies.
Just last week, Saudi Arabia said it would extend into 2024 a pledge to drop daily exports by a million barrels, while the UAE has cut daily output by 163,000.
However, Western sanctions — which include a $60 price cap on Russian oil — are forcing Moscow to keep its crude flowing to plug holes in its finances and pay for its war in Ukraine. They have also led Russia to heavily increase exports of oil products to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
And despite pledging to implement production cuts, Russia — an OPEC+ member — has failed to meet the targets it has promised this year and kept output relatively consistent, analysts say.
Ahead of the visit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said oil was “always on the agenda” when officials from the three countries interact, state-owned newswire Ria Novosti reported. And Yuri Ushakov, one of Putin’s advisers, told Russian media that the Kremlin considered the negotiations “extremely important.”
Putin buttered up his hosts a bit before starting his talks in the UAE, boasting about the “unprecedented high level” of Russian-UAE trade relations after landing in Abu Dhabi, according to Ria Novosti.
The UAE’s foreign ministry did not immediately answer a request for comment.
COP controversies
Putin’s COP-adjacent drop-in is the latest twist for a summit that has faced months of controversy over the decision to hold the talks in the oil-rich UAE.
A bundle of documents released shortly before the conference started indicated the UAE was scheming to use its position as the event’s host to strike fossil fuel deals with foreign governments, casting doubts on its ability to oversee the event. COP28 President Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, also the CEO of the UAE’s state-owned oil firm, has firmly rejected the allegations.
Putin has made a habit of dodging climate summits. He did not attend the last two COPs, held in Glasgow, Scotland, and Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt.
The Russian president, who is facing arrest in over 100 countries after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant against him for war crimes committed in Ukraine, rarely travels abroad.
He is unlikely to be arrested during this trip, as neither the UAE nor Saudi Arabia is a member of the ICC.
Putin should not be out of the country for more than a day, as he is expected to be back in Moscow on Thursday, where he will meet Iranian President Ebraïm Raïssi.
Meanwhile, back at COP28, the Russian pavilion seemed far removed from all this agitation.
A Russian-speaking panel was in progress on Wednesday morning, surrounded by screens boasting the merits of nuclear energy and Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company, Rosatom.
Zack Colman contributed reporting from Dubai.
