Polls Say Nikki Haley Can’t Win Her Home State. Here’s How You’ll Know If They’re Wrong.

Here’s the trouble with that: The Charleston-Low Country and Columbia political region where she’s likely to be strongest only dominates one of the state’s 7 congressional districts — the Charleston-based 1st District. While the region strongly influences two other nearby seats — the 2nd and the 6th — those districts have countervailing forces that could boost Trump.

The 2nd District’s GOP electorate lives mostly in Lexington and Aiken counties, which both gave solid majorities to Trump and religious conservative candidates in 2016. The 6th is a nearly Black majority district that has many rural counties which skew heavily to Trump. Its large Black population, which tends to vote Democrat, means there are relatively fewer of the white moderates Haley is counting on while the white Republicans in these counties tend to be the non-college evangelicals.

The end result is that Haley could lose two congressional districts with high numbers of college-educated voters in each — exactly the demographic that’s in her sweet spot.

MYRTLE BEACH

Most people think of Myrtle Beach as a resort destination, but it’s also the largest city in Horry County — and a Trump bastion. The county is the state’s fourth largest; it’s the fastest growing and it dominates the 7th Congressional District.

Its political distinction is that it has the lowest share of
college educated white voters of any of the state’s congressional districts. The incumbent representative, Russell Fry, won his seat with Trump’s endorsement in 2022 by unseating GOP incumbent Tom Rice, who had voted for Trump’s impeachment. Horry County was also Trump’s best in the 2016 primary, giving him 49 percent of the vote compared to his 32 percent statewide.