Black and Hispanic voters are much less likely to align themselves with the
Democratic Party than they were just three years ago, according to a new Gallup poll.
The news could spell trouble for Democrats
hoping to retain power in the White House and Senate this year and reclaim control of the House.
The minority voter base has long been a
reliable stronghold for Democrats, but Gallup found that Black voters surveyed who said they identify as Democrats or lean Democratic has fallen about 20 percent in the past three years, boosting the share of Black voters who identify as Republican or lean Republican.
In the latest poll, 66 percent of Black adults surveyed said they identify as or lean Democratic, while 19 percent said they identify as or lean Republican.
The trend matches the decrease in Democratic support among Hispanic voters, who also are showing slight shifts toward the Republican Party.
According to Gallup, the Democrats’
12-point advantage among Hispanics surveyed in 2023 is the lowest since at least 2011, when Gallup began interviewing respondents in Spanish.
The latest findings show that 47 percent of Hispanic voters say they at least lean Democratic, while
35 percent said they favor Republicans.
The poll reflects a growing shift among minority voters, who have been seen as stronghold voters for Democratic candidates.
A GenForward poll in December found that 20 percent of Black voters said they would rather vote for “someone else” other than former President Trump or President Biden in November, even if they are their respective party’s nominee.
That poll found that 17 percent of Black voters surveyed said they would vote for Trump, who is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, compared to 63 percent who said they would vote for Biden.
About 92 percent of Black voters cast their ballots for Biden in 2020, according to an analysis from Pew.
Gallup surveyed 12,145 adults for its poll in 2023. It has a margin of error of 1 percentage point, but the margins of error for smaller demographics range between 2 percentage points and 4 percentage points.
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