Commodity Roundup: Oil gains; ANZ eyes copper at $10,000/t over next 12 months

Oil prices on Thursday got a boost from a softer dollar and partly by indications of a tightening crude market, as investors continue to monitor the ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East, including the Red Sea crisis.

Crude stocks rose 7.17 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, data from American Petroleum Institute showed on Wednesday. Gasoline stockpiles also rose while distillate fuel inventories declined. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.

Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG told Reuters, “oil prices have been resilient thus far, with market participants seemingly eyeing a retest of its year-to-date high following its rally in February,” adding that geopolitical tensions provided support.

In the precious metals complex, gold, silver, platinum and palladium inched higher against a softer dollar, which makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable to overseas buyers. FOMC minutes released Wednesday showed, Federal Reserve officials were in no hurry to cut interest rates and expressed both optimism and caution on inflation at their policy meeting in January. Markets are currently pricing in a 72% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Lower interest rates boost the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion. Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) was up +0.22% to $2,029.45 an ounce by 6 am ET. On the data front, markets will keep a close eye on the US initial jobless claims, flash PMIs (Feb), existing home sales (Jan) .

Turning to base metals, ANZ analysts said, copper’s fundamentals continue to beat expectations amid an uncertain economic backdrop. Brokerage expects the inflection point in central bank monetary policies to trigger a broader improvement in sentiment in coming months. ANZ sees the market returning to deficit this year, which should underpin prices; maintains short-term target of $9,000/t and expect that to lift above $10,000/t over the next 12 months. Copper prices were little changed on the day, while aluminium, zinc, lead, tin gained.

Elsewhere, among agriculture commodities, soybean, cocoa and wheat futures ticked up. Recent estimates from the Ghana Cocoa Board show that cocoa production in the country is likely to fall to around 650kt-700kt in 2023/24, lower than the previous estimates of 850kt, ING reported. This would be the lowest annual output in 14 years. Cocoa prices jumped over 4% yesterday to settle at the highest level on record amid expectations for global supply shortages, as per the report.

Recent Commodity Price Movements

• Energy

  • Crude oil (CL1:COM) +0.25% to $78.11.
  • Natural Gas (NG1:COM) -2.13% to $1.74.

  Metals

  Agriculture

  Commodity ETFs

  Gold ETFs:

  • SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
  • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
  • iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
  • Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares ETF (NUGT)
  • Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)

  Other Metal ETFs:

  • iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
  • Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV)
  • Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)
  • U.S. Copper Index Fund, LP ETF (CPER)
  • abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL)

  Oil ETFs:

  • U.S. Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO)
  • Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO)
  • U.S. 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL)
  • U.S. Brent Oil Fund, LP ETF (BNO)
  • U.S. Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG)
  • U.S. Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)

  Agriculture ETFs:

  • Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)
  • Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
  • Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
  • Teucrium Corn Fund ETF (CORN)